Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.065357 0.075093 0.086105 0.099546 0.115597 0.134256 0.157744
2025-11-09 0.048009 0.059009 0.072519 0.090530 0.114210 0.144705 0.187648
2025-11-16 0.038752 0.050507 0.066032 0.088450 0.120701 0.166550 0.238795
2025-11-23 0.031804 0.043654 0.060352 0.086303 0.126944 0.190556 0.302860
2025-11-30 0.027038 0.038935 0.056755 0.086470 0.137074 0.224433 0.398370
2025-12-07 0.023189 0.034874 0.053377 0.086341 0.147181 0.262913 0.523766
2025-12-14 0.019603 0.030598 0.048874 0.083393 0.151931 0.294677 0.657652
2025-12-21 0.016044 0.025787 0.042615 0.075934 0.146191 0.304176 0.750725
2025-12-28 0.014162 0.023519 0.040394 0.075662 0.155452 0.352175 0.986691
2026-01-04 0.012813 0.021973 0.039216 0.077274 0.169859 0.421584 1.361762
2026-01-11 0.011523 0.020332 0.037562 0.077524 0.181525 0.492047 1.835741
2026-01-18 0.010404 0.018845 0.035950 0.077521 0.192953 0.571041 2.476985
2026-01-25 0.009246 0.017137 0.033642 0.075474 0.198758 0.639462 3.223931
2026-02-01 0.008120 0.015340 0.030837 0.071528 0.197696 0.684579 3.964378
2026-02-08 0.007455 0.014409 0.029818 0.072071 0.211681 0.806161 5.637368
2026-02-15 0.006844 0.013508 0.028713 0.072133 0.224557 0.939456 8.004395
2026-02-22 0.006390 0.012889 0.028175 0.073739 0.244486 1.136211 12.254481
2026-03-01 0.005962 0.012268 0.027524 0.074867 0.263712 1.360555 18.872460
2026-03-08 0.005465 0.011423 0.026160 0.073374 0.271474 1.528658 26.570043
2026-03-15 0.004854 0.010237 0.023719 0.067712 0.257794 1.529204 30.615633
2026-03-22 0.004549 0.009749 0.023081 0.068089 0.273576 1.794299 47.983752
2026-03-29 0.004329 0.009443 0.022890 0.070030 0.299064 2.206237 85.472562
2026-04-05 0.004085 0.009046 0.022381 0.070686 0.318687 2.619994 148.005561